Taiwan’s chip industry is bracing for upheaval as President-elect Donald Trump’s return to office casts doubt on the CHIPS and Science Act, a signature initiative of outgoing President Joe Biden. The law aimed to boost domestic semiconductor research and manufacturing in the US, but Trump has blasted the legislation as “so bad” and accused Taiwan of “stealing” the chip industry from the US. The future of the CHIPS Act now looks uncertain, leaving Biden’s administration racing to wrap up complex negotiations with chipmakers and distribute funds.
Forecast for 6 months: In the next 6 months, we expect to see a slowdown in investments from Asian companies in the US semiconductor industry due to the uncertainty surrounding the CHIPS Act. This may lead to a delay in the distribution of funds and a decrease in the number of new semiconductor manufacturing facilities being built in the US.
Forecast for 1 year: In the next 12 months, we anticipate that the Trump administration will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the CHIPS Act or repackage elements of it under new legislation. This could lead to a significant change in the direction of the US semiconductor industry, potentially favoring domestic companies over foreign ones.
Forecast for 5 years: In the next 5 years, we expect to see a shift in the global semiconductor industry, with Asian companies becoming more cautious in their investments in the US. This may lead to a decrease in the number of new semiconductor manufacturing facilities being built in the US and a increase in the number of facilities being built in other countries, such as Taiwan and South Korea.
Forecast for 10 years: In the next 10 years, we anticipate that the US semiconductor industry will undergo a significant transformation, with a greater emphasis on domestic production and a decrease in reliance on foreign companies. This may lead to a increase in the number of new semiconductor manufacturing facilities being built in the US and a decrease in the number of facilities being built in other countries.
