The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has been plunged into uncertainty after the Trump administration cancelled research-grant reviews, travel, and training for scientists. This move has sparked widespread concern among researchers, who fear that the freeze will hinder the agency’s mission and have a devastating impact on early-career scientists. The NIH’s $47 billion budget, which funds research across the country and beyond, is also at risk.
Forecast for 6 months: The NIH is likely to continue its freeze on grant reviews and travel, causing further uncertainty among researchers. This could lead to a decline in the number of research projects being funded, resulting in a delay in scientific breakthroughs and discoveries.
Forecast for 1 year: The NIH may begin to slowly resume its grant review process, but the pace will be slow, and the agency’s budget will continue to be a major concern. This could lead to a shift in the focus of research, with more emphasis on projects that are deemed “essential” or “urgent” by the Trump administration.
Forecast for 5 years: The NIH’s budget will likely continue to be a major point of contention between the Trump administration and Congress. This could lead to a significant reduction in funding for the agency, resulting in a decline in the number of research projects being funded and a delay in scientific breakthroughs and discoveries. The agency may also need to prioritize its research focus, potentially leading to a shift away from certain areas of study.
Forecast for 10 years: The long-term impact of the NIH’s freeze on grant reviews and travel will be significant. The agency’s budget will likely continue to be a major concern, and the focus of research may shift significantly. This could lead to a decline in the number of research projects being funded, resulting in a delay in scientific breakthroughs and discoveries. The agency may also need to adapt to a new reality, potentially leading to a shift in its mission and focus.
