Apple has blocked several ByteDance apps, including TikTok, in the US following a bill passed last year that would force the company to sell the short video app or face a ban. The affected apps include CapCut, Lemon8, and Marvel Snap, among others. The shutdown is a result of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which requires Apple to follow the laws in the jurisdictions where it operates.
Forecast for 6 months: The shutdown of ByteDance apps in the US will lead to a significant decline in the usage of these apps, with a potential loss of 20-30% of their user base. This will have a ripple effect on the advertising revenue of these apps, leading to a decrease in their revenue by 15-20%.
Forecast for 1 year: The shutdown will lead to a significant shift in the market, with other social media platforms such as Instagram and YouTube gaining popularity. This will lead to a decrease in the market share of ByteDance apps by 30-40% in the next 12 months.
Forecast for 5 years: The shutdown will lead to a long-term decline in the popularity of ByteDance apps, with a potential loss of 50-60% of their user base. This will lead to a significant decrease in their revenue, making it challenging for the company to recover.
Forecast for 10 years: The shutdown will lead to a complete decline of ByteDance apps in the US market, with a potential loss of 80-90% of their user base. This will lead to a significant decrease in their revenue, making it challenging for the company to survive in the long term.
