Researchers from France and Spain have developed a theoretical model that forecasts the movements of confined, densely packed crowds. The study, published in Nature, analyzed high-resolution video footage of the Chupinazo opening ceremony of the San Fermín Festival in Pamplona, Spain, and revealed a change in behavior akin to a phase change when the crowd density passed a critical threshold. The model could help predict potentially life-threatening crowd behavior in confined environments and form the basis for a crowd management protocol.
Forecast for 6 months: Within the next 6 months, we expect to see increased adoption of crowd management protocols in high-risk events, such as music festivals and sporting events, as event organizers and authorities seek to improve crowd safety.
Forecast for 1 year: Within the next year, we anticipate the development of more advanced crowd monitoring systems that utilize machine learning algorithms and computer vision to detect potential crowd safety risks, such as the emergence of circular oscillations.
Forecast for 5 years: Within the next 5 years, we expect to see widespread implementation of crowd safety protocols based on the new model, leading to a significant reduction in crowd-related incidents and fatalities.
Forecast for 10 years: Within the next 10 years, we anticipate the development of even more sophisticated crowd safety technologies, such as real-time crowd simulation and prediction tools, which will further enhance crowd safety and reduce the risk of catastrophic incidents.
