OpenAI’s latest experimental chatbot model, o3, has achieved a high score on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence (ARC-AGI) test, marking progress towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). The test, created by AI researcher François Chollet, assesses a system’s ability to reason and generalize. While the achievement is significant, experts caution that it’s hard to tell whether the test truly measures AI’s capacity to reason and generalize.
Forecast for 6 months: OpenAI’s o3 model will continue to improve, and we can expect to see more AI systems achieving high scores on AGI tests. However, the sustainability concerns surrounding the massive computational costs of these models will become increasingly apparent, leading to discussions about the need for more energy-efficient AI solutions.
Forecast for 1 year: As the AI research community continues to develop new benchmarks and tests, we can expect to see a shift towards more comprehensive and realistic evaluations of AI systems. This will lead to a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of AI and will drive the development of more advanced AI models.
Forecast for 5 years: The development of AGI will become a major focus area for AI research, with significant investments in this area. We can expect to see the emergence of new AI applications and industries, such as AI-powered healthcare and education, which will transform various aspects of our lives.
Forecast for 10 years: AGI will become a reality, and we will see the widespread adoption of AI systems that can reason, plan, and learn skills as well as humans can. This will lead to significant changes in various industries, including healthcare, finance, and education, and will require significant adjustments in our societal and economic structures.
