Asia’s Export-Driven Economies Bracing for Upheaval Under Trump

Former US President Donald Trump’s proposals for sweeping tariffs threaten to hobble exports that drive Asia’s growth. Trump has pledged to impose tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese imports and tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all other foreign goods. This move could result in a particularly serious economic fallout in Asia, home to many of the world’s most trade-dependent economies.
  • Forecast for 6 months: Asia’s export-driven economies will experience a decline in trade due to Trump’s proposed tariffs, with a predicted 8% drop in exports and 3% drop in imports for non-China Asia.
  • Forecast for 1 year: Trump’s tariffs will lead to a significant shift in production from China to Southeast Asia, potentially resulting in a trade war between the US and Asia. This could lead to a prolonged economic downturn in the region.
  • Forecast for 5 years: The US-China trade relationship will continue to deteriorate, leading to a prolonged period of economic uncertainty in Asia. This could result in a decline in foreign investment and a slowdown in economic growth for the region.
  • Forecast for 10 years: The US-China trade war will have a lasting impact on the global economy, leading to a shift in the global supply chain and a decline in trade between the US and Asia. This could result in a significant decline in economic growth for the region and a prolonged period of economic uncertainty.

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